Abstract

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EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING OF POSTPONEMENT RATES IN OPERATION THEATRES OF ADVANCED PEDIATRIC CENTRE TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Momia Yashpal, Koushal Vipin, Talati Shweta, Bhagat Hemant, Kumar Ashok, Singh Ranjana, Gupta Kanika, Momia Nidhi


Background Hospital contributes significantly tangible and intangible resources on a concurred plan by the scheduling of surgery on the OT list. Postponement decreases efficiency by declining throughput leads to wastage of resources hence burden to the nation. Patients and their family face economic and emotional implication due to the postponement. Postponement rate being a quality indicator controls check mechanism could be developed from the results. Postponement of elective scheduled operations results in inefficient use of the operating room (OR) time on the day of surgery. Inconvenience to patients and families are also caused by postponements. Moreover, the day of surgery (DOS) postponement creates logistic and financial burden associated with extended hospital stay and repetitions of pre-operative preparations to an extent of repetition of investigations in some cases causing escalated costs, wastage of time and reduced income. Methodology A cross-sectional study was done in the operation theaters of a tertiary care hospital in which total ten operation theaters of General Surgery Data of scheduled, performed and postponed surgeries was collected from all the operation theater with effect from March 1st to September 30th, 2018. A questionnaire was developed to find out the reasons for the postponement for all hospitalís stakeholders (surgeons, Anesthetist, Nursing Officer) and they were further evaluated time series analysis of scheduling of Operation Theater for moving average technique. Results Total 958 surgeries were scheduled and 772 surgeries performed were and 186 surgeries were postponed with a postponement rate of 19.42% in the cardiac surgery department during the study period. Month-wise postponement Rate exponential smoothing of time series data shows the dynamic of operating suits. To test throughput Postponement rate was plotted the postponed surgeries and on regression analysis is in a perfect linear relationship.