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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RISK REDUCTION USING PERT & CPM TECHNIQUE

Nand Kumar, Tushar Giri


The PERT/CPM produce begins with the hardwork of developing an estimate of the cost each activity when it is performed in the planning way (including any crashing). A various of details must be considered in planning how to coordinate all these activities, in developing a realistic schedule, and then in monitoring the progress of the project. Fortunately, two closely related operations research techniques, PERT (program evaluation and review techniques) and CPM (critical path method) were developed in the 50's, within different contexts: the CPM was developed for planning and control of DuPont engineering projects and the PERT was developed for the management of the production cycle of the Polar is missile. The usual PERT procedure may lead to overly optimistic results as many path which are not critical but slightly shorter than critical on the basis of estimated activity duration or average durations. This paper analyzed the traditional probability analysis method for duration risk in program evaluation and review technique(PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM). On the basis of that it simulates the project’s duration and analyzes the risk by Monte Carlo simulation method. They share the same objectives such as defining the project duration and the critical task. The PERT/CPM technique is based on two straight steps; a forward propagation to define the earliest start and finish dates (and subsequently the project duration and the free floats), and a backward promulgation for the latest start and finish dates (and the total floats). Initially, the activity times are static with in the CPM technique and probabilistic with in the PERT technique. In a software project, predicting the likelihood of duration may play a key role to wards project success.